基于CMIP6模式的叶尔羌河流域未来水文干旱风险预估OA北大核心CSTPCD

Global warming has led to the increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts,posing signifi-cant threats to ecological security and sustainable socioeconomic development,particularly in arid regions,which are highly sensitive and responsive to climate changes.This paper employs the distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS,utilizing observed meteorological and hydrological data from basin stations and global climate model data from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Program(CMIP6),to simulate and forecast the historical(1986-2014)and future(2015-2100)runoff trends and hydrological drought risks in the Yarkant Riv-er Basin(an essential tributary of the Tarim River),Xinjiang,China.The findings indicate that:(1)The HEC-HMS model is well-suited for arid basin areas.Under the three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)scenarios,the runoff and standardized runoff index(SRI)in the Yarkant River Basin are projected to significantly increase(P<0.1),with the SRI growth rate estimated at approximately 0.13-0.27·(10a)-1.(2)A comparative analysis of the marginal distributions of four drought characteristic variables in the basin for both historical and future peri-ods reveals that the duration and intensity of future droughts will exceed those in the historical record,with a con-tinuous rise in drought event magnitudes.(3)Moreover,the joint probability of future hydrological droughts in the Yarkant River Basin is expected to decrease relative to the historical period,leading to a prolonged return peri-od for future droughts.The outcomes of this study offer valuable scientific references for water resource manage-ment and the development of strategies to mitigate hydrological drought risks in the basin.