干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(5)：798-809,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.536
基于CMIP6模式的叶尔羌河流域未来水文干旱风险预估
Prediction of future hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin based on CMIP6 models
摘要
Abstract
Global warming has led to the increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts,posing signifi-cant threats to ecological security and sustainable socioeconomic development,particularly in arid regions,which are highly sensitive and responsive to climate changes.This paper employs the distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS,utilizing observed meteorological and hydrological data from basin stations and global climate model data from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Program(CMIP6),to simulate and forecast the historical(1986-2014)and future(2015-2100)runoff trends and hydrological drought risks in the Yarkant Riv-er Basin(an essential tributary of the Tarim River),Xinjiang,China.The findings indicate that:(1)The HEC-HMS model is well-suited for arid basin areas.Under the three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)scenarios,the runoff and standardized runoff index(SRI)in the Yarkant River Basin are projected to significantly increase(P<0.1),with the SRI growth rate estimated at approximately 0.13-0.27·(10a)-1.(2)A comparative analysis of the marginal distributions of four drought characteristic variables in the basin for both historical and future peri-ods reveals that the duration and intensity of future droughts will exceed those in the historical record,with a con-tinuous rise in drought event magnitudes.(3)Moreover,the joint probability of future hydrological droughts in the Yarkant River Basin is expected to decrease relative to the historical period,leading to a prolonged return peri-od for future droughts.The outcomes of this study offer valuable scientific references for water resource manage-ment and the development of strategies to mitigate hydrological drought risks in the basin.关键词
水文干旱/风险预估/CMIP6/气候变化Key words
hydrological drought/risk prediction/CMIP6/climate change引用本文复制引用
向燕芸,王弋,陈亚宁,张齐飞,张玉杰..基于CMIP6模式的叶尔羌河流域未来水文干旱风险预估[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(5):798-809,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52161145102) （52161145102）
山西省高等学校科技创新项目(2022L270)资助 （2022L270）
