减税降费规模与地方政府债务风险治理OA北大核心CHSSCDCSSCICSTPCD

Reducing taxes and fees is an important policy measure for China to actively respond to economic downward pres-sure and maintain global economic stability.However,the continuous expansion of its scale will exacerbate the risk of local govern-ment debt.This article first constructs a risk indicator system that includes three links:"borrowing","using",and"repay-ment".The entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to calculate the debt risk index of provincial-level local governments in China from 2015 to 2022.Then,a two-way fixed effect model and a panel threshold model are used to empirically analyze the impact of tax and fee reduction scale on local government debt risk.Research has found that the scale of tax and fee reductions is positively correlated with the overall risk of local government debt,and there is a threshold effect of economic development level.When the e-conomic development level crosses the threshold,the growth rate of local government debt risk will significantly decrease.Further research has found a non-linear relationship between the scale of tax and fee reductions and the risk of local government debt.As the scale of tax and fee reductions continues to expand,the growth rate of local government debt risk will also be curbed.