基于Vine-Copula的高土石坝变形监控模型研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Aiming at the problem that the deformation monitoring model for high earth-rock dams is mainly based on a single measuring point and cannot quantitatively consider the spatial correlation of measuring points,a deformation monitoring model based on Vine-Copula was constructed,and a spatial confidence domain early warning threshold setting method based on Monte-Carlo random sampling method was proposed.In the process of the model construction,the time series characteristics and spatial correlation between multiple measuring points were fully considered,and the Vine-Copula method was used to accurately model and analyze the deformation data to reveal the overall trend of high earth-rock dam deformation.At the same time,the spatial confidence region was determined by Monte-Carlo random sampling method,which provided a scientific basis for the setting of early warning threshold.The engineering practice showed that the model simulation results can accurately reflect the overall de-formation trend of high earth-rock dam,with high accuracy and rationality,and effectively realize the expansion of monitoring effect-quantity to the whole space of high earth-rock dams.The research results can provide new ideas and methods for the safety monitoring of high earth-rock dams,and have important theoretical significances and practical values.