干旱区研究2024，Vol.41Issue(5)：717-729,13.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2024.05.01
基于CMIP6模式的中国西北地区干旱时空变化
Spatial and temporal variation of drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 model
摘要
Abstract
Based on data from 152 meteorological stations in Northwest China and 16 climate models of CMIP6,the CMIP6 model data were bias-corrected using the RoMBC method.The Standardized Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Index(SPEI)was then constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and variation of drought in Northwest China under the historical and future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5).The results are as follows:(1)Under the historical scenario,the northwest area experienced a notable in-crease in both the temperature and precipitation.The temperature and precipitation have been rising at a rate of 0.15-0.74℃and 2.71-14.83 mm per decade,respectively,and the same is expected for future scenarios.(2)From 1975 to 2014,the annual and seasonal SPEI in Northwest China decreased overall.The maximum decline rate in spring was 0.19 per decade.Droughts in most areas were increasingly intense throughout the year,particu-larly in spring and winter.In terms of drought frequency in Northwest China,mild and moderate droughts ap-peared more than severe and extreme droughts,and this type of natural disaster was more frequent in the east of the country than in the west.(3)From 2020 to 2100,Northwest China is likely to suffer from droughts,but there are no distinct drought characteristics identified in the research under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.The northwest re-gion is expected to experience an increase in the number of droughts,trends in drought,and drought frequency under the other three scenarios.The most severe drought conditions were observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.This study provides insights into the spatial and temporal development of drought in Northwest China using mete-orological and model data.The findings can serve as a basis for drought risk assessment,scientific water resourc-es management,and agricultural production in the region.关键词
SPEI/干旱时空格局/CMIP6/西北地区Key words
SPEI/spatial-temporal pattern of drought/CMIP6/Northwest China引用本文复制引用
山建安,朱睿,尹振良,杨华庆,张薇,方春爽..基于CMIP6模式的中国西北地区干旱时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2024,41(5):717-729,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42161018,52179026) （42161018,52179026）
中国科学院青年创新促进会会员项目(2021424) （2021424）
甘肃省陇原青年创新创业人才(团队)项目(2023) （团队）
新疆生产建设兵团科技攻关计划项目(2021AB021) （2021AB021）
