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我国棉花生产集聚水平变化及影响因素分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

Analysis of cotton production agglomeration level and influencing factors in China

中文摘要英文摘要

[目的]了解我国棉花生产的集聚水平变化及影响因素,对优化棉花产业布局、推动棉花产业高质量发展、提升区域经济有现实意义.[方法]选用区位熵测度2001-2022年我国棉花生产集聚水平,并用竞争态模型对各主产省(自治区、直辖市)棉花生产集聚增长情况及竞争状态变化进行比较,最后实证分析影响集聚水平变化的因素.[结果]2001-2022年我国西北内陆棉区棉花生产集聚水平远高于长江流域棉区、黄河流域棉区且不断上升,新疆棉花生产集聚水平和竞争力不断增强,其他植棉大省的棉花生产集聚水平和综合竞争力均明显下降.影响我国棉花生产集聚变化的因素有粮棉争地矛盾、水资源、农业劳动力数量等资源禀赋因素,农业生产技术水平,运输成本、化纤产业等社会经济环境因素以及棉花目标价格政策因素等.[结论]通过棉花生产资源的科学配置,因地制宜实施棉花产业政策,提高棉花生产技术水平,完善棉花生产基础设施建设以及推动相关产业发展,完善目标价格补贴政策,有望实现棉花产业可持续发展.

[Objective]This study aims to understand the changes in the agglomeration level of cotton production in China and its influencing factors.These findings hold practical significance for optimizing the layout of the cotton industry,promoting high-quality development of the cotton industry,and enhancing regional economic development.[Methods]Using the location quotient index to measure the agglomeration level of cotton production in China from 2001 to 2022,comparing the agglomeration growth and competitive status changes of cotton production in major producing provinces using the competitive state model,and finally empirically analyzing the factors affecting agglomeration changes.[Results]From 2001 to 2022,the cotton production aggregation level in inland regions of Northwest China has been consistently higher than that in the Yangtze River basin and the Yellow River basin,and has continued to rise.The production aggregation level and competitiveness of cotton in Xinjiang have been continuously strengthened.However,the production aggregation level and comprehensive competitiveness of cotton in other major cotton-producing provinces have notably declined.Factors affecting the changes in cotton production aggregation in China include conflicts between grain and cotton for land,water resources,the quantity of agricultural labor,agricultural technology levels,transportation costs,the synthetic fiber industry,and cotton target price policy.[Conclusion]For the sustainable development of the cotton industry,it is recommended to scientifically promote the allocation of resources for cotton production,implement the cotton industrial policies in accordance with local conditions,improve the technical level of cotton production,improve the cotton production infrastructure,promote the development of related industries and improve target price subsidy policies.

兰雅琦;高雷;王秀东

中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081||中国农业科学院战略研究中心,北京 100081||中国农业发展战略研究院,北京 100081

棉花生产集聚区划竞争态高质量发展

cottonproduction agglomerationdivisioncompetitive statehigh-quality development

《棉花学报》 2024 (002)

101-113 / 13

2020年农业农村部委托项目"农村创业创新在乡村产业振兴中的实现路径和政策研究"(08200109)

10.11963/cs20240006

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