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教育对生育意愿影响的性别差异及机制分析OA北大核心CHSSCDCSSCICSTPCD

Gender Differences of the Impact of Education on Fertility Intentions and Its Mechanisms

中文摘要英文摘要

教育一直是备受关注的影响生育的因素,但相关文献往往忽视了对男性教育与生育关系的研究,而男性在生育中同样扮演着重要的角色.那么两性间教育与生育意愿的关系是否存在区别?利用CGSS 2015、2017、2018 与2021 年数据,使用Oprobit模型、工具变量法等探索教育对生育意愿的影响及其中的性别差异.研究发现,教育显著负向影响个体生育意愿,且对女性生育意愿的负向影响程度大于男性.边际效应分析表明,在每个意愿生育子女数上,男性样本中教育的边际效应均比女性样本中低,其中,教育在愿意生育两个孩子处的边际效应在两性间差异最大.机制分析表明,教育回报、性别观念与养儿防老观念是教育与生育意愿的关系存在性别差异的重要原因.此外,在农业户口组,低、中家庭收入水平组与低、中社会阶层认同组,教育对女性生育意愿的影响程度大于男性,在城镇户口组、高家庭收入水平组与高社会阶层认同组,这种性别差异则不显著.最后,基于研究结论,探讨其对现实的启示意义,并就两性间教育与生育意愿关系的差异提出了针对性意见.

Education has always been a factor that has received much attention for influencing fertility.However,the relevant literature has often neglected to examine the relationship between education and fertility among men,whereas men play an equally important role in fertility.So are there gender differences in the relationship between education and fertility intentions?This paper explores the impact of education on fertility intentions and the gender differences therein by applying the Oprobit model,instrumental variable method,etc.,using CGSS data for 2015,2017,2018 and 2021.The study found that education has a significantly negative impact on fertility intentions,and the negative impact on fertility intentions of women is greater than that of men.Marginal effect analysis shows that for each desired number of children,the marginal effect of education among men is lower than that among women.And the marginal effect of education differs most between men and women at the level of willingness to have two children.Mechanism analysis shows that the returns to education,gender concepts and the concept of raising children for old age are important reasons for the gender differences in the relationship between education and fertility intentions.In addition,the study also finds that education has a greater impact on women's fertility intentions than men's in the groups of agricultural household registration,low and medium household income level and low and medium social class identity.This gender difference is not significant in the groups of urban household registration,high household income level and high social class identity.Finally,based on the findings,the article discusses the implications for reality and puts forward targeted opinions on the gender differences in the relationship between education and fertility intentions.

李长安;李艳

对外经济贸易大学 政府管理学院,北京 100029

社会学

生育意愿教育性别差异机制

fertility intentionseducationgender differencesmechanisms

《人口与经济》 2024 (003)

1-18 / 18

国家社会科学基金重大项目"实现更加充分、更高质量就业研究"(22ZDA094).

10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2024.00.020

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