近20年来人类活动对洪泽湖水质影响归因OACSTPCD

In order to study the impact of human activities on lake water quality and improve lake water environment,the evolution characteristics of permanganate index(IMn),total nitrogen(TN)and total phosphorus(TP)concentrations in Hongze Lake and its surrounding areas during 1996-2020 are analyzed,and the impact factors are identified and their contributions are quantified using Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression models.The results show that:(a)during the study period,the water quality factor concentrations of Hongze Lake show a significant downward trend,and are significantly correlated with the changes of socio-economic indicators in surrounding areas;(b)the main indexes affecting the concentration of IMn,TN and TP are the discharge of industrial sewage,population and cultivated land area,respectively,with contributions of 32.89%,24.60%and 49.1%;and(c)in terms of region,the population of Huaiyin District and Xuyi County,the industrial sewage discharge of Hongze District and Xuyi County,and the cultivated land area of Xuyi County and Sihong County contribute significantly to the concentration of TN,IMn and TP,respectively.The research results can provide some reference for solving the lake water environment problems in this area.