水资源与水工程学报2024，Vol.35Issue(2)：32-39,8.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.02.04
基于M-DGM(1,1)模型的东江河流系统健康评估
Health assessment of the Dongjiang River system based on the M-DGM(1,1)model
摘要
Abstract
As an important water source for Guangdong Province and Hong Kong area,Dongjiang River is directly related to the economic development of the Pearl River Delta region and the prosperity and stabili-ty of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.In order to grasp the development trend of the health status of the Dongjiang River system and promote sustainable development of the economic society in Dongjiang River Basin,regarding to the oscillatory distribution characteristics of Dongjiang River system health scores(2015-2019),a M-DGM(1,1)grey prediction model was constructed based on the grey predicting theory and the gray recurrence dynamic model with equal dimension to assess the future health status of the river system(2020-2024).The results show that the accuracy of the prediction model can reach the first level,and the model can meet the requirements of health assessment of the Dongjiang Riv-er system.It is found that the health status of the Dongjiang River system is in the sub-healthy state dur-ing 2020-2024,but the overall development is improving towards healthy.The scores of some sensitive warning indices(2020-2024)fluctuated,so it is necessary to strengthen the protection and management of the health of the Dongjiang River system.关键词
河流系统健康/预测/灰色理论/M-DGM(1,1)/东江Key words
health of river system/prediction/grey theory/M-DGM(1,1)/the Dongjiang River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
方陈卓,王海鹏,吴龙华,杨校礼,邓西平,武煜伦,张广明,李喜元..基于M-DGM(1,1)模型的东江河流系统健康评估[J].水资源与水工程学报,2024,35(2):32-39,8.基金项目
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20230099) （BK20230099）
