集装箱港口集疏运重卡电动化的经济性分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

To analyze the economics of electrifying heavy-duty trucks(HDT)for container ports'hinterland transportation,a model was developed to estimate the present value of their generalized total cost of ownership(GTCO).The model considered factors such as purchase tax incentives,subsidies,loans,and emission costs.Next,an indicator was constructed for the economic analysis of electrifying HDT.Then,two electrification plans,namely"buy chassis and battery"(Plan One)and"buy chassis but lease battery"(Plan Two)were analyzed.The results show that two plans are not economical under the case conditions of whether emission costs are considered or not,but considering emission costs can effectively mitigate the cost disadvantage of electrifying HDT.If emission costs are considered and all other factors remain constant,Plan Two will be economical if the battery rental is less than CNY 56100,or the electricity price is less than or equal to CNY 1.28/(kW∙h),or the fuel price is greater than or equal to CNY 8.48/L,or the energy intensity of diesel HDT(dHDT)is greater than or equal to 0.40 L/km,or the energy intensity of electric HDT(eHDT)is less than or equal to 1.34(kW∙h)/km.Similarly,if Plan One is made economical,it should satisfy that the battery price is less than CNY 221100,or the electricity price is less than CNY 1.23/(kW∙h),or the fuel price is greater than CNY 8.72/L,or the energy intensity of dHDT is greater than or equal to 0.41 L/km,or the energy intensity of eHDT is less than or equal to 1.28(kW∙h)/km.Exempting eHDT from the vehicle purchase tax does not guarantee that either plan is economical,but it can improve the economical indicators of both plans.Although increasing the unit emission cost or subsidy amount of eHDT can ensure that both plans are economical,the required increase ratio is high,which may increase the financial burden on HDT drivers or the government.