浙江沿海基于浮标的有效波高分析和数值预报订正OA北大核心CSTPCD

Based on the observations of five buoys along the Zhejiang coast from October 2010 to December 2022,and sea wave and 10-meter wind forecasts of the European Medium-Range Weather Prediction Center fine grid model,the observed correlation between wind and wave is analyzed,the significant wave height(SWH)forecasting is verified and correction method is studied as well.Deviations and root mean square error(RMSE)of the 0～240 hour forecasts indicate that the SWH is slightly overestimated for the buoys away from the coastline,while a little bit underestimated for the near shore buoys.The forecasting instability increases along with the prolong of lead time.The correlated coefficients between the 24-hour forecasts and the observations of the buoys far away from the coastline are higher than those of the near shore buoys,with coefficients of 0.94 and 0.85,respectively.There exists systematic deviations for the SWH forecasting,which dominates the error sources for the buoys.The predicted SWHs of the near shore buoys are lower than observations,while the forecast biases of the buoys far away from the coastline change from positive to negative with the SWH increasing,and the greater the SWH,the more absolute biases received.It basically follows a linear regression between the predicted SWHs and observations for the buoys away from the coastline.While larger biases are recorded for the near shore buoys due to the influence of terrain,and a two-variable linear regression can get a better SWH correction result,with the predicted SWH and 10-meter speed as regression variables.The correction equations can achieve good results and can be applied to the locations similar to the buoys along the Zhejiang coast.