祖厉河干流近65a径流变化及归因分析OA北大核心CSTPCD
Analysis of runoff changes and attribution in the main stream of Zuli River in the past 65 years
基于祖厉河干流会宁、郭城驿、靖远3个国家基本水文站1957-2021年实测的月、年径流量资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析等方法,探讨了祖厉河流域不同时间尺度径流变化规律,进行了径流减少的归因分析.结果表明:(1)1957-2021年期间祖厉河干流径流量呈减少趋势,近30a径流量减少52.9%.(2)会宁、郭城驿、靖远3个水文站实测年径流量分别在1992年、1984年、1994年发生了突变.(3)祖厉河干流3站径流量与降水量呈现相似的丰枯周期.分析结果表明,祖厉河干流实测年径流量减少主要受水土保持措施等人类活动的影响,其次为降水减少等气候因素的影响,其中,人类活动和气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为74.47%、25.53%.
Based on the measured annual and monthly runoff data of Huining,Guochengyi and Jingyuan stations in the main stream of Zuli River from 1957 to 2021,the variation characteristics and driving factors of runoff at different time scales in Zuli River Basin were analyzed by linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis.The results showed that:which are mainly influenced by human activities and climatic factors.(1)The runoff of the main stream of the Zuli River showed a decreasing trend from 1957 to 2021,and the runoff has decreased by 52.9%over the past 30 years.(2)The measured annual runoff of the three hydrological stations of Huining,Guochengyi,and Jingyuan underwent abrupt changes in 1992,1984,and 1994,respectively.(3)Run-off and precipitation showed similar cycles of abundant and low state at the three stations of the main stream of Zuli River.The analysis results show that the reduction of measured annual runoff in the main stream of the Zuli River is mainly affected by human activities such as soil and water conservation measures,followed by climatic factors such as the reduction of precipitation,of which human activities and climate change contribute to the re-duction of runoff by 74.47%and 25.53%,respectively.
梁双河;牛最荣;贾玲
甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
人类活动气候变化径流量归因分析祖厉河干流
human activitiesclimate changerunoffattribution analysismain stream of Zuli River
《干旱区研究》 2024 (006)
928-939 / 12
甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5FA094);甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK068,22GSLK069)
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