干旱区研究2024，Vol.41Issue(6)：928-939,12.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.03
祖厉河干流近65a径流变化及归因分析
Analysis of runoff changes and attribution in the main stream of Zuli River in the past 65 years
摘要
Abstract
Based on the measured annual and monthly runoff data of Huining,Guochengyi and Jingyuan stations in the main stream of Zuli River from 1957 to 2021,the variation characteristics and driving factors of runoff at different time scales in Zuli River Basin were analyzed by linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis.The results showed that:which are mainly influenced by human activities and climatic factors.(1)The runoff of the main stream of the Zuli River showed a decreasing trend from 1957 to 2021,and the runoff has decreased by 52.9%over the past 30 years.(2)The measured annual runoff of the three hydrological stations of Huining,Guochengyi,and Jingyuan underwent abrupt changes in 1992,1984,and 1994,respectively.(3)Run-off and precipitation showed similar cycles of abundant and low state at the three stations of the main stream of Zuli River.The analysis results show that the reduction of measured annual runoff in the main stream of the Zuli River is mainly affected by human activities such as soil and water conservation measures,followed by climatic factors such as the reduction of precipitation,of which human activities and climate change contribute to the re-duction of runoff by 74.47%and 25.53%,respectively.关键词
人类活动/气候变化/径流量/归因分析/祖厉河干流Key words
human activities/climate change/runoff/attribution analysis/main stream of Zuli River引用本文复制引用
梁双河,牛最荣,贾玲..祖厉河干流近65a径流变化及归因分析[J].干旱区研究,2024,41(6):928-939,12.基金项目
甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5FA094) （21YF5FA094）
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK068,22GSLK069) （22GSLK068,22GSLK069）
