基于PLUS和InVEST模型的荆州市碳储量评估与土地利用多情景模拟OA北大核心CSTPCD

In the context of carbon neutrality,this study examines the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Jingzhou City over the past 20 years and analyzes the relationship between land use changes and carbon storage to support the optimization of land use structure.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,land use in Jingzhou was categorized into six types:cultivated land,forest land,grassland,wetland,water body,and construction land.The areas of cultivated land,grassland,and construction land increased,while the areas of forest land,wetland,and water bodies decreased.Other land types were primarily converted to cultivated land and construction land,with population growth,GDP,and transportation as the main driving factors.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the overall carbon storage value showed an increasing trend,with a total increase of 6.4 million tons.Cultivated land,forest land,and grassland contributed the most to this increase.(3)Predictions for 2030 under different scenarios—natural development,ur-ban development,and ecological protection—show that carbon storage values will be 132.69 million tons,132.25 million tons,and 131.89 million tons,respectively.The highest land use value is predicted under the urban development scenario.Using 2000 and 2010 as the initial data,the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use in 2020 and compare it with the actual land use in 2020,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.71 and an overall accuracy of 0.84,indicating significant con-sistency between the simulation results and actual data.This multi-scenario simulation using the PLUS model can provide theoretical references for national spatial planning and urban ecosystem protection.