基于SEER数据库的胰腺胶样癌生存预测模型的构建与验证OA北大核心CSTPCD

Objective:To identify the risk factors that affect the prognosis of patients with pancreatic colloid carcinoma(CC),construct a clinical prognostic model,and evaluate the survival prognosis of patients.Methods:A total of 510 patients from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)database of the National Cancer Institute were selected and divided into the training and validation sets.A prognostic model was constructed based on the clinical variables of the training set to predict the probability of cancer-specific survival rates of CC patients at 1,3,and 5 years Subsequently,the selected variabes and the calibration predictive model were validated using the validation set.Results:In this study,the factors affecting the prognosis of CC patients were screened by using the SEER database,including tumor grade,the number of detected lymph nodes,whether surgery was performed,T stage,and whether metastasis was present.A clinical prognostic model was constructed based on the above-mentioned risk factors.The final receiver operator characteristic curve and area under the curve value showed that the prediction of this model had a high accuracy.The calibration curve showed that the survival rate predicted by the model was similar to the actual survival rate.Conclusion:In this study,the clinical prognostic model was constructed,and the survival prognosis of patients was effectively evaluated by using this model,which fills the gap in the prognostic studies of this rare tumor,providing a powerful basis for clinicians to assess the prognosis of patients.