高中阶段普职比变动规律及未来20年趋势预测:生源的视角OA北大核心

By grasping the changes in the total number of upper secondary school students and the ratio of general education to vocational education,predicting the development trends in the next 20 years is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of upper secondary vocational education.The research shows that the data characteristics of upper secondary schools in 2011-2021 are as follows:the number of degrees and the scale of running schools in upper secondary general education are basically stable;in fact,upper secondary vocational education is regarded as a regulator to meet the upper secondary education needs of the people;the ratio of general education to vocational education mainly fluctuates due to fluctuations in the school-age population.Looking towards the future,the number of upper secondary students from 2023 to 2043 corresponds to the birth population from 2008 to 2028,respectively.Due to the decrease in the school-age population,the number of upper secondary vocational education students will sharply decrease in 14 years,which has become a certainty;the ratio of general education to vocational education will fall into a new imbalance between 2037 and 2043 due to the passive reduction of upper secondary vocational education;the currently established vocational education college entrance examination channel will exhibit low selectivity due to changes in the ratio of general education to vocational education.In view of this,it is proposed to adjust the development focus of upper secondary vocational education policies in a timely manner;reasonably setting the ratio of general education to vocational education;timely pay attention to policy recommendations for the"ratio of general education to vocational education"in higher education.