长江科学院院报2024，Vol.41Issue(7)：16-24,9.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20230272
基于3种新型群体智能算法优化正则化极限学习机的三峡水库入库日径流预测
Prediction of Daily Inflow Runoff of Three Gorges Reservoir Using Regularized Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Three New Swarm Intelligent Algorithms
摘要
Abstract
Accurate prediction of daily inflow runoff is crucial for optimizing reservoir operation.To enhance the pre-cision of daily inflow runoff forecasting,a prediction model integrating Wavelet Packet Transform(WPT),Dung Beetle Optimizer(DBO),Giant Trevally Optimizer(GTO),and Mud Ring Algorithm(MRA)optimized Random-ized Extreme Learning Machine(RELM)is proposed and applied to forecasting daily inflow runoff in the Three Gorges Reservoir.Initially,WPT is utilized to decompose the daily runoff time series into a periodic term compo-nent and a fluctuation term component.Subsequently,by employing DBO,GTO,and MRA to optimize the input layer weights and hidden layer bias of RELM,the WPT-DBO-RELM,WPT-GTO-RELM,and WPT-MRA-RELM models are established.These models are then employed to predict and reconstruct the periodic and fluctuation com-ponents of daily inflow runoff.Comparative models such as WPT-DBO-ELM,WPT-GTO-ELM,and WPT-MRA-ELM based on Extreme Learning Machine(ELM),as well as WPT-DBO-BP,WPT-GTO-BP,and WPT-MRA-BP based on BP neural network,along with unoptimized WPT-RELM,WPT-ELM,and WPT-BP models and unde-composed DBO-RELM,GTO-RELM,and MRA-RELM models are utilized for analysis.Results indicate that:1)The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of WPT-DBO-RELM,WPT-GTO-RELM,and WPT-MRA-RELM models for predicting the daily inflow in Three Gorges Reservoir is 0.512％,0.519％,and 0.762％respectively,with Mean Absolute Error(MAE)of 54.05 m3/s,55.97 m3/s,and 86.76 m3/s,Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)of 84.99 m3/s,84.81 m3/s,and 128.18 m3/s,a determination coefficient ≥0.999 4,Theil Inequality Coefficient ≤0.005 17,showing superior prediction accuracy and generalization ability when compared to the other 12 models.2)DBO,GTO,and MRA effectively optimize the parameters of RELM networks and enhance prediction performance.3)Incorporating a regularization term in RELM prevents overfitting,boosts model generalization abili-ty,and outperforms ELM and BP networks.4)The proposed models exhibit high prediction accuracy,low compu-tational complexity,proving to be efficient for estimating daily inflow runoff time series.关键词
日径流预测/正则化极限学习机/蜣螂优化算法/珍鲹优化算法/泥环算法/小波包变换/三峡水库Key words
daily runoff forecast/regularized extreme learning machine/Dung Beetle Optimizer/Giant Trevally Optimizer/Mud Ring Algorithm/wavelet packet transform/Three Gorges Reservoir分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张代凤,崔东文..基于3种新型群体智能算法优化正则化极限学习机的三峡水库入库日径流预测[J].长江科学院院报,2024,41(7):16-24,9.基金项目
云南省创新团队建设专项(2018HC024) （2018HC024）
云南省水利厅水利科技项目(2024BC202003) （2024BC202003）
国家澜湄合作基金项目(2018-1177-02) （2018-1177-02）
