气象研究与应用2024，Vol.45Issue(2)：68-72,5.DOI:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.11
深圳台风灾害综合风险预报预警服务探索与实践
Exploration and practice of comprehensive risk forecast and early warning services of typhoon disasters in Shenzhen
摘要
Abstract
By comparatively analysing the forecast and warning services of Typhoon"Mangkhut"in 2018 and Typhoon"Kompasu"in 2021 as examples,this paper introduce the exploration and practice on the"31631"progressive forecast and early warning meteorological service methodology for the comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters in Shenzhen,and proposed a simple and practical macro risk assessment method,and puts forward three typhoon disaster macro-risk assessment methods based on the departmental emergency co-ordination and social response mechanism led by typhoon warnings in Shenzhen:typhoon wind and rain influencing element forecast analysis,extreme analysis based on historical return period and uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic forecasting,and typhoon warning signal analysis.The local historical typhoon disaster library and the comprehensive analysis capability of forecasters can provide strong support for the improvement of the quality of comprehensive risk forecasting and early warning services for typhoon disasters.关键词
台风灾害/综合风险/影响预报/风险预警Key words
typhoon disaster/comprehensive risk/impact forecasting/risk warning分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李明华,王书欣,徐婷,赵春阳,王明洁,贺佳佳,兰红平..深圳台风灾害综合风险预报预警服务探索与实践[J].气象研究与应用,2024,45(2):68-72,5.基金项目
世界气象组织"超大城市智慧气象服务公私参与示范项目(RA II-17-J-PP-1)"、中国工程院战略研究咨询项目"应对极端气象灾害重大科技发展战略研究"和中国气象局气象软科学重点项目"超大城市气象灾害综合风险预警服务机制的探索与实践—以深圳为例(2022ZDIANXM14)"、中国气象局决策气象服务专项面上项目"31631递进式气象服务的内涵与深化发展(14)" （RA II-17-J-PP-1）
