深圳台风灾害综合风险预报预警服务探索与实践OA

By comparatively analysing the forecast and warning services of Typhoon"Mangkhut"in 2018 and Typhoon"Kompasu"in 2021 as examples,this paper introduce the exploration and practice on the"31631"progressive forecast and early warning meteorological service methodology for the comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters in Shenzhen,and proposed a simple and practical macro risk assessment method,and puts forward three typhoon disaster macro-risk assessment methods based on the departmental emergency co-ordination and social response mechanism led by typhoon warnings in Shenzhen:typhoon wind and rain influencing element forecast analysis,extreme analysis based on historical return period and uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic forecasting,and typhoon warning signal analysis.The local historical typhoon disaster library and the comprehensive analysis capability of forecasters can provide strong support for the improvement of the quality of comprehensive risk forecasting and early warning services for typhoon disasters.