气象科学2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：420-430,11.DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0035
CMIP6模式对北太平洋中纬度海洋锋强度与冬季风暴轴关系的模拟及预估
Simulation and projection of the relationship between the North Pacific mid-latitude oceanic frontal intensity and the wintertime storm track based on the CMIP6 model
摘要
Abstract
In this study,the relationship between the North Pacific mid-latitude oceanic frontal intensity and the wintertime storm track was simulated and projected based on a CMIP6 high-resolution climate model CNRM-CM6-1-HR.Results show that the model well reproduces the positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the storm track.The storm track activity is intensified(weakened)in its climatological peak and downstream as the oceanic front strengthens(weakens).However,the simulated positive correlation is stronger than the observation in the storm track northern region,which is mainly attributed to the greater positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the near-surface baroclinicity.By comparing the relationship between the oceanic frontal intensity and the storm track under four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)with the historical run,it is found that there tends to exist the significant positive correlation under global warming,while the correlation will weaken in the storm track climatology and northern region,with the largest reduction in the high radiation scenario(SSP5-8.5)and the least reduction in the medium to high radiation scenario(SSP3-7.0).Further analysis indicates that the positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the near-surface baroclinicity also exhibits a similar weakened trend,which suggests that the projected changes in the relationship between the oceanic front and the storm track are mainly determined by the future changes in the relationship between the oceanic front and the near-surface baroclinicity.关键词
风暴轴/中纬度海洋锋/CMIP6模式/全球变暖/低层大气斜压性Key words
storm track/mid-latitude oceanic front/CMIP6 model/global warming/near-surface baroclinicity分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
姚瑶,杨修群,黄晓刚..CMIP6模式对北太平洋中纬度海洋锋强度与冬季风暴轴关系的模拟及预估[J].气象科学,2024,44(3):420-430,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42005025) （42005025）
国防科技大学科研计划资助项目(ZK20-34) （ZK20-34）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFF0801702) （2022YFF0801702）
