CMIP6模式对北太平洋中纬度海洋锋强度与冬季风暴轴关系的模拟及预估OACSTPCD

In this study,the relationship between the North Pacific mid-latitude oceanic frontal intensity and the wintertime storm track was simulated and projected based on a CMIP6 high-resolution climate model CNRM-CM6-1-HR.Results show that the model well reproduces the positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the storm track.The storm track activity is intensified(weakened)in its climatological peak and downstream as the oceanic front strengthens(weakens).However,the simulated positive correlation is stronger than the observation in the storm track northern region,which is mainly attributed to the greater positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the near-surface baroclinicity.By comparing the relationship between the oceanic frontal intensity and the storm track under four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)with the historical run,it is found that there tends to exist the significant positive correlation under global warming,while the correlation will weaken in the storm track climatology and northern region,with the largest reduction in the high radiation scenario(SSP5-8.5)and the least reduction in the medium to high radiation scenario(SSP3-7.0).Further analysis indicates that the positive correlation between the oceanic frontal intensity and the near-surface baroclinicity also exhibits a similar weakened trend,which suggests that the projected changes in the relationship between the oceanic front and the storm track are mainly determined by the future changes in the relationship between the oceanic front and the near-surface baroclinicity.