人民珠江2024，Vol.45Issue(7)：67-76,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2024.07.008
基于Copula函数的抚河流域水文干旱特征分析
Analysis of Hydrological Drought Characteristics in Fuhe River Basin Based on Copula Function
摘要
Abstract
Exploring the characteristics of hydrological drought in watersheds is greatly significant for scientific drought prevention.In this paper,taking the Fuhe River basin as the study area,the SWAT model is used to obtain runoff sequences for 31 sub-basins in the study area and compute the Standardized Runoff Index(SRI).The tour theory and the conditional probability methods of the Copula function are applied to compare and analyze the hydrological drought characteristics in the basin.The results show that 51 drought events occurred in the Fuhe River Basin during 1960-2019,with an average drought duration and intensity of 4.22 months and 4.70,respectively.Under univariate factors,the risk of drought is relatively high in the vicinity of the mainstream of the basin.The Frank Copula function effectively fits the joint distribution of drought variables in most sub-basins,with the co-recurrence return period for severe droughts and above being less than 8 years.In general,the risk of severe hydrological drought in the Fuhe River Basin is relatively high,and the basin's drought resistance capacity needs to be improved.关键词
水文干旱/游程理论/Copula函数/抚河流域Key words
hydrological drought/trip theory/Copula function/Fuhe River Basin分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
龙鹏,简鸿福,韩会明,刘明超..基于Copula函数的抚河流域水文干旱特征分析[J].人民珠江,2024,45(7):67-76,10.基金项目
江西省自然科学基金资助项目(20232BAB213076) （20232BAB213076）
江西省水利厅科技项目(202324YBKT02、202223YBKT16) （202324YBKT02、202223YBKT16）
