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基于多距离融合的场次降雨时空相似性比较OA北大核心CSTPCD

Spatio-temporal similarity comparison of rainfall events based on multi-distance fusion

中文摘要英文摘要

[目的]降雨相似性分析是一种用于比较和评估不同降雨事件之间相似性的一种方法,可用于降雨径流过程的预测.针对降雨时空分布特征,以北京市中心城区 2008-2021 年为数据样本,提出了一种基于多距离融合的场次降雨时空相似性比较方法.[方法]首先通过设置雨量占比阈值,进行降雨场次划分,共划分位于汛期(6-9 月)降雨 225 场.随后提取降雨量、降雨历时、降雨强度、降雨中心范围等特征要素,并计算3 个方面的降雨特征距离:降雨要素距离、降雨中心距离、降雨总量距离.同时为了更好综合特征距离,采用主成分分析方法进行距离融合计算权重,得出最终的距离,并根据计算结果进行相似度排序.[结果]通过对 33 号和 120 号两场降雨的比较,从降雨量分布图、降雨中心范围图及降雨特征要素的直观对比,展示了较高的相似度,经过计算的综合相似度为78.46%.[结论]结果表明:该方法综合考虑了降雨的强度、空间范围和降雨总量等方面的差异,能够提供准确可靠的场次降雨相似性分析结果,并为城市洪涝预警和灾害防治提供有益工具.

[Objective]Rainfall similarity analysis is a method used to compare and evaluate the similarity between different rain-fall events,which can be used for rainfall-runoff process prediction.Focusing on the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of rainfall,this paper takes the central urban area of Beijing from 2008 to 2021 as the data sample,and proposes a multi-distance fusion-based rainfall event spatio-temporal similarity comparison method.[Methods]First,rainfall events were divided by setting a rainfall percentage threshold,dividing 225 rainfall events in the flood season(June-September).Then,feature elements such as rainfall,rainfall duration,rainfall intensity,and rainfall center range were extracted,and rainfall feature distances were calcu-lated in three aspects:rainfall element distance,rainfall center distance,and total rainfall distance.At the same time,in order to better integrate the feature distances,the principal component analysis method was used to calculate the weights for distance fusion,and the final distance was obtained,and similarity ranking was performed according to the calculation result.[Results]By comparing rainfall events No.33 and No.120,it can be seen from the rainfall distribution map,rainfall center range map and intuitive comparison of rainfall feature elements that they have a high degree of similarity.The calculated comprehensive sim-ilarity is 78.46%.[Conclusion]The result show that:this method comprehensively considers the differences in intensity,spatial range,total rainfall amount and other aspects of rainfall,and can provide accurate and reliable rainfall event similarity analysis result,and provide useful tools for urban flood warning and disaster prevention.

李虎;王丽晶;杨思敏;赵飞;王加虎

河海大学 水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098北京市水科学技术研究院,北京 100048

水利科学

多距离融合场次降雨降雨特征相似性分析主成分分析

multi-distance fusionrainfall eventsrainfall characteristicssimilarity analysisprincipal component analysis

《水利水电技术(中英文)》 2024 (006)

106-119 / 14

北京市科技计划项目"暴雨洪涝灾害智能感知及多源数据驱动风险预警技术研究与应用"(Z231100003823005);北京市科技计划课题"北京城市洪涝淹水实时预测预警关键技术研究与示范"(Z201100008220005)

10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.06.009

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