水资源与水工程学报2024，Vol.35Issue(3)：29-39,50,12.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.03.04
时空异质性视角下长江经济带水资源系统韧性评估及调控因子分析
Resilience assessment of water resources system and analysis of regulatory factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the perspective of spatio-temporal heterogeneity
摘要
Abstract
The assessment and regulation of water resources system resilience plays an important role in the alleviation of crises and risks related to water resources.Based on the attributes of natural resources,social economy,ecological environment of water resources,a water resources system resilience evaluation index system was constructed with the consideration of the resistance,recovery,and adaptability charac-teristics of water resources system resilience.This system includes six dimensions:water resources resili-ence,water economy resilience,water welfare resilience,water management resilience,water ecology re-silience and water environment resilience.Then,a projection pursuit model based on the sparrow search algorithm was established,the natural breakpoint method was used to identify regional spatial differentia-tion characteristics and the geographical detector was adopted to explore the regulatory factors of the spa-tial distribution pattern of water resources system resilience.According to the analysis of the water re-sources system resilience in 11 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019,it was found that in terms of spatial distribution,the resilience of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was the highest in the western region,followed by the eastern region,but the lowest in the central region,and the south was generally better than the north.From temporal perspective,the resilience of the water resources system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has fluctuated over the study period,but overall showed an upward trend.From the perspective of six dimensions,the range of the re-silience value of the water ecology resilience was relatively large,fluctuating within the range of 0.08-0.52,water welfare resilience was the highest,followed by the water environment resilience.The factors of water resources and water welfare subsystem had a greater impact on the resilience of water resources system,and the proportion of industrial wastewater treatment investment in GDP and the water consump-tion per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value of water economy subsystem,as well as the impact of wa-ter supply pipeline density and per capita water supply of water welfare subsystem,were gradually in-creasing.Through the analysis of resilience and regulatory factors of the water resources system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,targeted countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to improve the re-silience of the water resources system in this area.关键词
水资源系统/韧性/麻雀搜索算法/投影寻踪模型/地理探测器/长江经济带Key words
water resources system/resilience/sparrow search algorithm/projection pursuit model/ge-ographical detector/the Yangtze River Economic Belt分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
何伟军,李佳琪,袁亮..时空异质性视角下长江经济带水资源系统韧性评估及调控因子分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2024,35(3):29-39,50,12.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目(2019ZDA089) （2019ZDA089）
国家自然科学基金项目(72104127,71478101) （72104127,71478101）
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJCGJW009) （20YJCGJW009）
