考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法OA北大核心CSTPCD

The increasing renewable penetration in the power system results in the long-term imbalance of the power system.This paper divides the long-term imbalance risk of the power system into two parts:the continuous low-renewable-output event and the long-term monthly energy supply imbalance risk.First,this paper selects the continuous low-renewable-output scenario and proposes a monthly electricity imbalance risk assessment model based on the Conditional Value at Risk(CVaR)theory.On this basis,a power system planning method considering long-term imbalance risk is proposed.Through the optimal allocation of flexible resources such as seasonal energy storage,the long-term adequacy of the power system could be effectively improved.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is proved based on the case studies on the IEEE RTS-79 system and the role of seasonal energy storage in mitigating long-term imbalance risk is discussed.