极端降水影响下粤港澳大湾区城市洪涝人口暴露度预估OA

This study develops a method for assessing population exposure to urban flooding based on a multidimensional conditional probability model,focusing on the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).The estimation of population exposure was conducted under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios(SSP2-4.5)and various rainfall intensities for the period 2030-2100.The results indicate that under moderate heavy rainfall scenarios,the maximum population density exposure to urban flooding in the GBA will exceed 6000 people/km2.Under extreme rainfall scenarios,the maximum population exposure to urban flooding could reach 8000 to 12 000 people/km2.Furthermore,under extreme rainfall impacts,the western part of Guangzhou,the Guangzhou-Foshan border area,most parts of Shenzhen,and the Dongguan-Shenzhen border area will consistently be high-risk zones for urban flood exposure in the GBA,with an average population exposure exceeding 3500 people/km2.These findings provide scientific support for developing comprehensive flood prevention strategies and enhancing urban flood resilience in the GBA.