中国水利Issue(13)：34-38,5.
极端降水影响下粤港澳大湾区城市洪涝人口暴露度预估
Estimation of population exposure to urban flooding in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under extreme rainfall
摘要
Abstract
This study develops a method for assessing population exposure to urban flooding based on a multidimensional conditional probability model,focusing on the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).The estimation of population exposure was conducted under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios(SSP2-4.5)and various rainfall intensities for the period 2030-2100.The results indicate that under moderate heavy rainfall scenarios,the maximum population density exposure to urban flooding in the GBA will exceed 6000 people/km2.Under extreme rainfall scenarios,the maximum population exposure to urban flooding could reach 8000 to 12 000 people/km2.Furthermore,under extreme rainfall impacts,the western part of Guangzhou,the Guangzhou-Foshan border area,most parts of Shenzhen,and the Dongguan-Shenzhen border area will consistently be high-risk zones for urban flood exposure in the GBA,with an average population exposure exceeding 3500 people/km2.These findings provide scientific support for developing comprehensive flood prevention strategies and enhancing urban flood resilience in the GBA.关键词
Copula函数/强降雨/洪水暴露/SSP2-4.5/气候变化/粤港澳大湾区Key words
Copula/heavy rainfall/exposure to flooding/SSP2-4.5/climate change/Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘智勇,陈晓宏,林凯荣,涂新军,赵铜铁钢,佘贞燕..极端降水影响下粤港澳大湾区城市洪涝人口暴露度预估[J].中国水利,2024,(13):34-38,5.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000) （2021YFC3001000）
国家自然科学基金项目(52179031) （52179031）
广东省杰出青年基金项目(2023B1515020116) （2023B1515020116）
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2023B1515040028). （2023B1515040028）
