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快速城镇化时期中国城市体系构成及动态演进OA北大核心CHSSCDCSSCICSTPCD

Composition and Dynamic Evolution of China's Urban Systems During Rapid Urbanization Period

中文摘要英文摘要

文章基于第五次、第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据,运用统计分析和实证检验方法对快速城镇化时期我国城市体系构成及动态演进特征进行分析.研究结果表明:(1)2000-2020年,我国超大城市数量由3个增加至10个,人口占比由6.7%上升至16.3%;特大城市数量由7个增加至28个,人口占比由8.6%上升至20.6%;中等规模城市、Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型小城市存在不同程度的人口外流现象,其中Ⅱ型小城市的人口外流问题最为严重.(2)2010-2020年,超大城市中,成都和西安人口增长最快,年均增长率分别为7.9%和7.6%;上海和北京人口增速出现明显放缓趋势,年均增长率分别为0.8%和1.4%.(3)2010-2020年人口净流入量排前十位的城市全部位于珠三角、长三角和京津冀城市群,深圳、上海和北京是三大城市群人口净流入量最大的城市,珠三角城市群中东莞和深圳城区流动人口占比最高.(4)我国城市体系规模分布总体呈现对数正态分布特征;"位序-规模"分布指数值由2000年的0.867下降至2020年的0.748,与Zipf定律下的帕累托最优分布存在偏离且具有加剧趋势;不同规模城市与城市增长之间不存在趋势性比例关系,城市体系演化遵循Gibrat定律.

Based on the fifth,sixth and seventh national census data,this paper uses statistical analysis and empirical testing methods to analyze the composition and dynamic evolution characteristics of China's urban system during the period of rapid ur-banization.The results go as below:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the number of megacities in China increases from 3 to 10,and the pro-portion of the population increases from 6.7%to 16.3%.The number of megalopolises increases from 7 to 28,and the proportion of population increases from 8.6%to 20.6%.Medium-sized cities,small cities of type Ⅰ and type Ⅱ have different degrees of popu-lation outflow,and the problem of population outflow of type Ⅱ is the most serious.(2)From 2010 to 2020,Chengdu and Xi'an saw the fastest population growth among megacities,with an average annual growth rate of 7.9%and 7.6%,respectively.The popula-tion growth in Shanghai and Beijing shows a significant slowdown,with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%and 1.4%,respec-tively.(3)From 2010 to 2020,the top 10 cities with net population inflows are all located in the Pearl River Delta,the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Shenzhen,Shanghai and Beijing are the largest net population inflow cities in the three major urban agglomerations.Dongguan and Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta have the highest proportion of floating population.(4)The scale distribution of urban systems generally presents lognormal distribution characteristics.The value of the"order-scale"distribution index decreases from 0.867 in 2000 to 0.748 in 2020,which deviates from Pareto optimal scale distribution of the Zipf's Law and shows an aggravating trend.Gibrat's Law of no trend proportional relationship between ur-ban size and urban growth has confirmed.

李嬛

山东工商学院 工商管理学院,山东 烟台 264005

社会学

中国城市体系规模分布Zipf定律Gibrat定律动态演进

Chinaurban systemsscale distributionZipf's LawGibrat's Lawdynamic evolution

《统计与决策》 2024 (014)

40-45 / 6

山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2021MD089)

10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2024.14.007

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