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重卡发展技术路线及电气化进程探讨OACHSSCDCSTPCD

Discuss on heavy-duty trucks development technology path and electrification process

中文摘要英文摘要

近年来,中国重卡产销量进入震荡下行和深度调整阶段,动力构成优化速度加快.在"双碳"目标和汽车电动化两大国家战略背景下,中国重卡正在经历从燃油车向电动、氢重卡的逐渐转型.各技术路线的经济性直接影响其发展速度和发展规模,不同技术路线的重卡在实际使用过程中各有优势,政策层面对各技术路线的发展导向和支持力度也明显不同.未来中国重卡动力构成优化速度将明显加快,预计短期内LNG重卡依然是替代柴油重卡的主力,电动重卡销量将明显提升,氢燃料电池重卡继续保持小规模增长,并有望于"十五五"期间取得明显的技术突破.建议沿着油-气(LNG为主)-电-氢的道路稳步推进重卡的电气化进程.

In recent years,China's heavy-duty truck production and sales volume has entered a stage of downward shock and deep adjustment and the optimization of power composition has accelerated.Under the background of the two national strategies of dual carbon goals and automobile electrification,China's heavy-duty trucks are undergoing a gradual transition from fuel vehicles to electric and hydrogen heavy-duty trucks.The economy of each technology path directly affects its development speed and development scale,heavy-duty trucks of different technology paths have their own advantages in the actual use process,and the policy level's development guidance and support for each technology path are obviously different.The paper proposes that the future of optimizing the power composition of heavy-duty trucks in China will be significantly accelerated and LNG heavy-duty trucks will continue to be the main alternative to diesel heavy-duty trucks in the short term,electric heavy-duty truck sales will increase significantly,and hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks will continue to maintain small-scale growth expecting to achieve the significant breakthrough during the 15th Five-Year Plan.It is recommended to steadily promote the electrification of heavy-duty trucks along the approach to oil-gas(LNG-based)-electricity-hydrogen.

罗艳托;巩凯;于庆良;李国辉;高雪;吴俊杰;肖枝敏

中国石油规划总院中国石油黑龙江销售公司中国石油大学(北京)

重型卡车电气化转型新能源重卡氢燃料重卡

heavy-duty truckselectrificationtransitionnew energy heavy-duty truckhydrogen-powered heavy-duty truck

《国际石油经济》 2024 (006)

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