中国炼化行业氢能利用绿色化发展前景分析OACHSSCDCSTPCD

The paper designs a standard refining enterprise with a processing capacity of about 1.35%of the national processing capacity and selects such four hydrogen production routes on the basis of 2022 data as hydrogen from coal,hydrogen from natural gas,hydrogen from industrial by-products,and hydrogen from electrolyzed water,and establishes such three scenarios as the baseline scenario,the general transition scenario,and the accelerated transition scenario,to project the hydrogen use of the standard refining enterprise from 2022 to 2060.The driving factors affecting the source of hydrogen use include the demand for hydrogen and technological progress,while the constraints affecting the source of hydrogen use have the cost of hydrogen production and carbon emissions.The results show that hydrogen supply will exceed demand in China's refining industry in the future and hydrogen from natural gas will be used as the main source of hydrogen in the short term.In the long term,the cost advantage of traditional hydrogen production technology is no longer available as the price of green power decreases,the route of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water will become the mainstream technology route in the medium to long term,ushering in a period of rapid growth,and hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is expected to become a mainstream source of hydrogen supply after technological breakthroughs.