国际石油经济2024，Vol.32Issue(7)：69-75,112,8.
中国炼化行业氢能利用绿色化发展前景分析
Prospect of greening hydrogen energy utilization in China's refining and chemical industry
摘要
Abstract
The paper designs a standard refining enterprise with a processing capacity of about 1.35%of the national processing capacity and selects such four hydrogen production routes on the basis of 2022 data as hydrogen from coal,hydrogen from natural gas,hydrogen from industrial by-products,and hydrogen from electrolyzed water,and establishes such three scenarios as the baseline scenario,the general transition scenario,and the accelerated transition scenario,to project the hydrogen use of the standard refining enterprise from 2022 to 2060.The driving factors affecting the source of hydrogen use include the demand for hydrogen and technological progress,while the constraints affecting the source of hydrogen use have the cost of hydrogen production and carbon emissions.The results show that hydrogen supply will exceed demand in China's refining industry in the future and hydrogen from natural gas will be used as the main source of hydrogen in the short term.In the long term,the cost advantage of traditional hydrogen production technology is no longer available as the price of green power decreases,the route of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water will become the mainstream technology route in the medium to long term,ushering in a period of rapid growth,and hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is expected to become a mainstream source of hydrogen supply after technological breakthroughs.关键词
能源转型/氢能利用/氢气生产/结构优化/情景预测/炼化行业Key words
energy transition/hydrogen utilization/hydrogen production/structural optimization/scenario prediction/refining industry引用本文复制引用
朱旭敏,冯连勇..中国炼化行业氢能利用绿色化发展前景分析[J].国际石油经济,2024,32(7):69-75,112,8.基金项目
本文为国家自然科学基金项目(编号:72274212)研究成果. （编号:72274212）
