中国电力2024，Vol.57Issue(8)：96-107,12.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202402058
分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法
Multi-level Interval Rolling Warning Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Fluctuation Events
摘要
Abstract
Under the influence of large-area extreme weather conditions,the impact of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations on power system balance is significant and may lead to risks such as curtailment of solar power and load shedding.In response to these issues,this paper proposes a multi-level rolling warning method for distributed photovoltaic fluctuations based on interval analysis theory,aiming to provide a rolling warning of the potential harm of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations.Firstly,the power control mechanism for handling distributed photovoltaic fluctuations in the power system is clarified,and warning levels are established to determine the range of fluctuations that can be controlled by different power control measures,i.e.,the warning thresholds corresponding to different warning levels.Secondly,based on the probability density of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations,the probabilities of each warning level are calculated by integrating the probability densities within each warning range.Finally,the differences in forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic fluctuations at different time scales are analyzed,and the rolling warning of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations is achieved by periodically adjusting the warning results.Case study results demonstrate that the proposed method can determine the thresholds for each warning range while providing warning results for different system operating conditions and photovoltaic fluctuation events.Moreover,the root mean square error of the warning results obtained with our method compared to those of the Monte Carlo method is only 1.6718%,thus verifying the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method.关键词
分布式光伏波动/功率平衡/区间分析/滚动预警/概率密度Key words
distributed photovoltaic fluctuation/power balance/interval analysis/rolling warning/probability density引用本文复制引用
周才期,刘静利,孙鹏凯,张玉敏..分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法[J].中国电力,2024,57(8):96-107,12.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5108-202218280A-2-309-XG).This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC(No.5108-202218280A-2-309-XG). （5108-202218280A-2-309-XG）
