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中国式现代化背景下能源转型风险识别与应对OA北大核心CSTPCD

Energy Transition Under Chinese Path to Modernization:Risk Identification and Responses

中文摘要英文摘要

能源转型是实现可持续发展和环境友好的重要任务、维护国家能源安全并促进社会公平的关键举措,研究其潜在风险与应对策略具有现实意义和宏观价值.本文剖析了中国式现代化五大内涵对能源转型的本质要求,识别出以本质要求为出发点的能源转型风险,提出了相应风险的应对策略与保障机制.研究发现,中国式现代化对能源转型提出了"能源安全、环境友好、社会公平"三方面本质要求;我国能源转型在能源安全方面面临着煤炭行业安全、油气供给安全、新型电力系统运行安全风险,在环境友好方面面临着低碳技术制约发展、新能源所需关键金属矿产供给安全风险,在社会公平方面面临着社会公平失调风险,还面临着一定的金融风险.最后从能源安全风险应对、环境友好风险应对、社会公平失调风险应对、金融风险应对4个方面提出了应对策略,进而从短期优先实施、长期持续推行两个层面建立各类应对策略的保障机制.

Energy transition is crucial for realizing sustainable development and environmental friendliness;it is also vital for maintaining national energy security and promoting social equity of China.Therefore,studying the potential risks and their coping strategies regarding energy transition has practical and strategic significance.This study analyzes the essential requirements of China's modernization for energy transition,identifies the risks during energy transiton based on the essential requirements,and proposes the coping strategies and safeguard mechanisms.The results of the study reveal that China's modernization puts forward three essential requirements for energy transition,namely energy security,environmental friendliness,and social equity.In terms of energy security,China's energy transition faces security risks regarding the coal industry,oil and gas supply,and new power system operation;in terms of environmental friendliness,it faces constraints from low-carbon technologies and the supply risk of key metals and minerals for new energy;it also faces the risk of social inequity and certain financial risks.Furthermore,strategies are proposed to coping with the risks regarding energy security,environmental friendliness,social equity,and finance;safeguard mechanisms for each type of coping strategies are established from two perspectives:short-term prioritized implementation and long-term sustainable enforcement.

张来斌;王建良;武颂凯;李孥;唐旭

中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京 102249||应急管理部油气生产安全与应急技术重点实验室,北京 102249中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 102249||中国石油大学(北京)碳中和与能源创新发展研究院,北京 102249中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 102249中国地质大学(北京)自然资源战略发展研究院,北京 100083

经济学

能源转型中国式现代化油气进口电力系统低碳技术金属矿产

energy transitionChinese path to modernizationoil and gas importspower systemlow-carbon technologymetallic mineral

《中国工程科学》 2024 (004)

16-27 / 12

中国工程院咨询项目"中国式现代化目标下的能源转型战略研究"(2023-XBZD-05) Chinese Academy of Engineering project"Research on Energy Transition Strategy under Chinese Path to Modernization"(2023-XBZD-05)

10.15302/J-SSCAE-2024.04.009

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