中国人口·资源与环境2024，Vol.34Issue(6)：1-8,8.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20231205
碳中和背景下中美欧印2035年碳减排力度及经济代价探究
Exploring the carbon reduction efforts and economic costs of China,the U.S.,the EU,and India in 2035 in the context of carbon neutrality
摘要
Abstract
According to the common time frame of the Paris Agreement,all parties are expected to submit a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)for 2035 by 2025.Their carbon reduction efforts for 2035 will be a crucial link between the current NDCs and long-term commitments to carbon neutrality and will be of great significance to whether the world can ultimately achieve the temperature-control goal of 2 ℃/1.5 ℃.This study examines the United States(U.S.)and the European Union(EU),the two largest car-bon-emitting developed economies,along with China and India,the two largest carbon-emitting emerging economies.The aim is to infer their potential carbon reduction efforts in 2035 from the perspective of bridging NDCs and carbon neutrality pledges.This study also ex-plores the support for the 2 ℃/1.5 ℃ goal and the economic costs of such efforts using a carbon allowance allocation framework and a computable general equilibrium model.The results show that:① Moving from the NDCs toward carbon neutrality,China's carbon emis-sions per unit of GDP in 2035 could decline by 73%～77%from 2005,the U.S.carbon emissions could decline by 61%～67%from 2005,the EU carbon emissions could decline by 65%～70%from 1990,and India's carbon emissions per unit of GDP could decline by 51%～58%from 2005.② These carbon reduction efforts may support a 2 ℃-consistent global carbon emissions pathway in 2035.How-ever,to support a 1.5 ℃-consistent global pathway,the U.S.and the EU would have to achieve zero or even negative carbon emissions in 2035,and China would have to reduce its carbon emissions to about 5 Gt CO2.③ In a non-cooperation scenario,China would face a GDP loss of 0.36%～0.58%in 2035 to achieve the above carbon reduction efforts,which is comparable to that of the U.S.(0.36%～0.52%)and slightly lower than that of the EU(0.49%～0.80%).Being at a relatively lagging stage of development,India would have a GDP loss(0.26%～0.81%)more susceptible to carbon reduction efforts.Enhancing cooperation can help achieve carbon reductions at lower economic costs,and the overall GDP loss of the four emitters is expected to decrease from 0.39%～0.65%in a non-cooperation sce-nario to 0.21%～0.41%in a cooperation scenario.It is suggested that China promptly deepens research on emission reduction efforts and implementation pathways for 2035 and further promotes transnational cooperation and exchanges in addressing climate change,thereby supporting the globle achievement of the Paris climate goals.关键词
2035年碳减排/国家自主贡献/碳中和/碳配额/GDP损失Key words
2035 carbon reductions/Nationally Determined Contributions/carbon neutrality/carbon allowances/GDP loss分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王海林,翁玉艳,潘勋章..碳中和背景下中美欧印2035年碳减排力度及经济代价探究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2024,34(6):1-8,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目"碳中和目标下中国2035年国家自主贡献(NDC)更新方案和政策研究"(批准号:72174105) （NDC）
国家自然科学基金资助项目"碳定价机制的复杂机理与动态优化研究"(批准号:72243003). （批准号:72243003）
