迈向碳中和:中国减煤路径的模拟与评估OA北大核心CSSCICSTPCD

To address global climate change,China has pledged to strive for carbon neutrality by 2060.At present,the main source of carbon emissions in China is energy consumption,and the energy consumption structure is still dominated by coal.Therefore,reducing coal consumption has become a critical first step for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal.By constructing a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this study explored multiple coal reduction paths,including coal overcapacity reduction,carbon tax,carbon trading,and coal resource tax.Through scenario simulation,this study evaluated the effects of these approaches on macro-economy,carbon emissions,industrial structure,and energy structure when the same coal reduction effect was achieved.The study found that in China's unique energy system,the implementation of the coal reduction paths would definitely bring about a reduc-tion in carbon emissions,but different paths may have different impacts on GDP,industrial structure,and energy structure.Specifically,coal capacity reduction and coal resource tax may have the least negative impact on GDP,but have no significant effect on promoting the clean transformation of industrial structure and energy structure.The main reason is that enterprises can maintain low costs by pur-chasing cheap energy,thus not fundamentally changing energy costs and greatly increasing dependence on foreign energy.Carbon tax and carbon trading and the hybrid mechanism of the two may significantly promote the optimization of industrial structure;although the emission reduction effect is better,they may have a larger negative impact on the total economy because such paths take into account the carbon cost of all energy varieties.Therefore,the study puts forward the following suggestions:First,we should pay attention to the synergistic effect of the demand-side coal reduction path and carbon emission reduction policy,improve the carbon trading mechanism,incorporate other energy-consuming industries into the carbon trading system as soon as possible,and pay attention to the economic loss risk caused by strict total carbon emission control.Second,we should promote the market-oriented reform of electricity and achieve'carbon-electricity'collaborative emission reduction,which should be the core strategy of coal reduction and carbon reduction in the next 20 years.Third,we should attempt to optimize the coal substitution strategy with the help of the dividend of electricity marketiza-tion,such as thermal power,which can gradually change from the base-load function to the peak-load function.