个体激励型自愿减排机制能否提升地区碳排放绩效?OA北大核心CSSCICSTPCD

As a voluntary individual carbon trading mechanism,the carbon generalized system of preferences(CGSP)aims to promote individuals'active practice of low-carbon behaviors through the incentive model of'who reduces emissions,who benefits from the prac-tice.'It is an extension and expansion of the carbon emission trading mechanism to the individual level,and it is of great significance to evaluate the carbon emission performance of this policy to tap the emission reduction potential of individual society and enrich the envi-ronmental policy tool system.Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the implementation of the CGSP in Guangdong Province in 2015,this paper empirically evaluated the policy effect of the CGSP in improving regional carbon emission performance by using the synthetic control method and provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021 and further explored the mechanism of the policy effect.The re-sults showed that the implementation of the CGSP was conducive to improving regional carbon emission performance and promoting the reduction of regional total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,and carbon emission intensity.In the seven years from 2015 to 2021,the policy intervention reduced the total carbon emissions of Guangdong Province by an average of 40.94 million tons,per capi-ta carbon emissions by 0.294 tons,and carbon emission intensity by 0.312 tons/10 000 yuan.This conclusion was still valid after the placebo test,ranking test,and test excluding other policy interferences.Further intermediary tests showed that the CGSP acted on re-gional carbon emissions through two intermediary pathways:promoting public green travel and reducing electricity consumption.But the mediating path with energy consumption as the mediating variable did not hold.The study reveals the effectiveness of both incentiv-ized and voluntary individual carbon trading mechanisms in environmental governance and makes the following policy recommenda-tions:① We should pay attention to the emission reduction potential of social individuals on the consumer side,gradually incorporate individual carbon trading mechanisms into carbon emission reduction governance,and encourage local governments to apply and devel-op the CGSP according to local conditions.② In the design of CGSP,it is necessary to improve the incentive mechanism in low-carbon travel scenarios and low-carbon life scenarios and improve the convenience of public participation in emission reduction.③ It is neces-sary to develop a more scientific carbon-inclusive quantitative verification methodology and build a comprehensive carbon trading sys-tem covering the public and industrial enterprises.