中国国产气勘探开发现状与中长期前景研究OACHSSCDCSTPCD
Status quo of exploration and development of domestic natural gas in China and its mid-long term outlook
近十年,中国国产气快速发展,勘探开发和增储上产成绩显著,先后发现30多个千亿立方米级大气田,年均增产125亿立方米."七年行动计划"、积极利用政策、技术进步与创新、日益完善基础设施以及积极经济支持政策是过去十年国产气大幅增产的主要原因.未来国产气增储上产面临严峻挑战:上游市场竞争和活力不足、改革不配套不协调、外部环境条件和约束加剧、资源品位下降、关键技术瓶颈突出、矿权获取成本偏高等.未来中长期国产气资源潜力大,开发生产前景良好,完全可能延续过去十年的增产态势,2035年产量将达3650亿立方米,考虑其他气源产量,国产气总产量有望超过4000亿立方米.为此,提出六大措施与政策建议:一是研究制定国家中长期油气增储上产战略规划,继续从国家层面推进提升国产气生产能力;二是深化油气体制改革,加快构建持续推进油气增储上产的体制机制;三是强化地质理论和技术创新,构建新型油气增储上产科技创新体制机制;四是加大对油气增储上产政策支持力度;五是健全完善天然气利用政策,营造积极的天然气产业发展环境;六是深化国企改革,持续提升资源开发生产经营管理能力,增强市场竞争力.
China's domestic gas production has been developing rapidly,with remarkable achievements in exploration and development and in increasing reserves and production,more than 30 gas fields larger than 100 bcm of reserve have been discovered,and annual natural gas production growth has reached 12.5 bcm.The"Seven-Year Plan",active utilization policy,technological progress and innovation,increasingly perfect infrastructure and positive economic support policy are the main reasons for the significant increase in domestic gas production over the past decade.In the future,domestic gas reserves and production are facing such serious challenges as insufficient competition and vitality in the upstream market,reforms that are not complementary and coordinated,intensified external environmental conditions and constraints,declining resource grades,prominent bottlenecks in key technologies,and high costs of acquiring mineral rights.With the large potential of domestic gas resources in the medium and long term in the future,and good prospects for development and production,it is high possible to continue the trend of increasing production over the past decade,output in 2035 will reach 365 bcm,and the total domestic gas output is expected to exceed 4000 bcm taking into account the production of other gas sources.The paper puts forward such six measures and policy recommendation as to study and formulate the national medium-and long-term oil and gas storage and production strategic planning and continue to promote the enhancement of domestic gas production capacity at the national level,to deepen the reform of oil and gas system and accelerate the construction of the institutional mechanism for the continuous promotion of oil and gas storage and production,to strengthen the geologic theories and technological innovations and construct a new type of scientific and technological innovation institutional mechanism for the increase of oil and gas storage and production,to boost the policy support for the oil and gas storage and production,to improve the natural gas utilization policy and facilitate a positive environment for the development of the natural gas industry,and to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and continue to improve the resource development,production and management capabilities in order to enhance market competitiveness.
潘继平
中国海油集团能源经济研究院
国产气勘探开发储量产量资源潜力中长期前景
domestic natural gasexploration and developmentreservesproductionresources potentialsmid-long termoutlook
《国际石油经济》 2024 (008)
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