黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全驱动力分析及动态演变OA北大核心CSTPCD

This study constructed a water ecological security evaluation index system based on the W-SENCE perspective(a complex ecosystem integrating economy,society,and nature with water as the mainstay).Using statistical data from the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2022,the Entropy-TOPSIS method,M-K analysis,and ARIMA model were used to analyze the driving forces and dynamic evolution trends of water ecological security in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.The following results were obtained:(1)The ra-tio of runoff to pollution;reservoir regulation and storage capacity;the proportion of water consumption for for-estry,animal husbandry,and fisheries;and the proportion of water consumption for farmland irrigation were the major driving factors for water ecological security in the basin.The social subsystem and ecological subsystem were the key driving factors for water ecological security.(2)From the perspective of spatial differences,the over-all water ecological security status in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin was relatively poor(＜Grade Ⅲ),with the upstream consistently performing better than the downstream.The area from Lanzhou to Hekou is a key regulation zone.(3)In terms of dynamic evolution,a mutation occurred in the water ecological security sta-tus around 2013,followed by an improving trend.The section from Longyangxia to Lanzhou was a focus of atten-tion.(4)The water ecological security status will continue to improve steadily from 2023 to 2034,with the risk of water ecological security being higher in the middle and downstream than in the middle and upstream.The area from Lanzhou to Hekou remains a key regulation zone.