教师教育研究2025，Vol.37Issue(2)：58-70,13.
面向2035年的师范生招生规模动态分析
Dynamic Analysis of the Enrollment Scale of Normal Students Targeting 2035
摘要
Abstract
The construction of the teaching workforce is crucial to the Education Power Strategy,as the scale of teach-er education enrollment directly impacts the future supply and quality of teachers.This study employs Time Series A-nalysis method to forecast the school-age population from 2026 to 2035,which estimates the demand for teachers based on student-teacher ratios,and determines the ratio of teacher education students to total teachers,thereby pro-jecting the required enrollment scale for teacher education programs.Furthermore,the study disaggregates the de-mand for teacher education students across different educational stages,regions,and disciplines in basic education.The results indicate that although the school-age population is expected to decline,the demand for teacher education students will continue to rise annually.By 2035,the total enrollment of teacher education students is projected to reach 586,500 to 769,300,including 45,800 to 84,300 graduate students and 540,700 to 685,000 undergraduate students.Among educational stages,primary education exhibits the highest demand for teacher education students with the fastest growth rate,while secondary education places the highest emphasis on teacher qualifications.Region-ally,urban areas are experiencing a rapid increase in demand for teacher education students,whereas rural areas are witnessing a gradual decline.In terms of subject distribution,Chinese,mathematics,and English remain the primary focus of teacher education training,but the demand for arts,physical education,and music teachers is rising signifi-cantly and is expected to continue growing in the future.Based on these findings,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations:dynamically optimizing teacher education enrollment,improving the student-teacher ratio in primary schools,enhancing teacher qualification levels,and establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for teacher staffing.关键词
师范生招生规模/学龄人口变化/生师比调整/时间序列分析Key words
teacher education enrollment/school-age population changes/STR adjustment/time series analysis分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
郭志慜,江俊儒..面向2035年的师范生招生规模动态分析[J].教师教育研究,2025,37(2):58-70,13.基金项目
本研究为广东省2023教育科学规划项目(高等教育专项)《'新师范'背景下高校执行'公费定向培养粤东粤西粤北地区中小学教师'项目过程追踪与效果评估研究》(项目编号:2023GXJK271)的研究成果 （高等教育专项）
