沈阳农业大学学报2025，Vol.56Issue(3)：148-162,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1700.2025.03.015
基于夜间灯光数据的黄河流域城市建设用地碳排放影响因素分析及达峰预测
Analysis of Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions from Urban Construction Land in the Yellow River Basin Based on Nighttime Light Data and Peak Prediction
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Using nighttime light data and provincial CEADs carbon emissions,a fitting model was constructed to calculate the carbon emissions of urban construction land in various prefecture level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022.[Methods]The standard deviation ellipse and centroid model were used to analyze and explore the distribution and movement trend of carbon emissions of urban construction land in the Yellow River Basin.The global Moran index and LISA clustering were used to analyze their spatial correlation and high-value aggregation.Finally,the GTWR model was used to analyze the regression coefficient levels of factors affecting carbon emissions of construction land in each city from the perspectives of economy,population,and technology.The scenario setting method was used to explore the peak carbon emissions of construction land in the Yellow River Basin under different scenarios.[Results]Carbon emissions from urban construction land in the Yellow River Basin are mainly concentrated in downstream and midstream cities,but the center of carbon emissions tends to move towards the midstream,with coordinates shifting from 111°82′81″E,37°01′675″N to 111°56′46″E,36°53′425″N.At the same time,there is spatial autocorrelation in carbon emissions within the Yellow River Basin,and there is a phenomenon of high concentration in some cities downstream during the research period,the regression coefficient of economic development level gradually decreased,but gradually increased in the middle reaches of the region.The regression coefficient of population size gradually increases,indicating that the carbon emissions caused by population size are gradually increasing.[Conclusion]Under the scenario of high-speed economic development,the peak time for carbon emissions from construction land is 2030,while under both the baseline and low-carbon development scenarios,the peak time for carbon emissions from construction land is 2024.The order of peak values from high to low is:high-speed development>baseline>low-carbon scenario.关键词
黄河流域/城市建设用地碳排放/影响因素/空间自相关模型/GTWR/XGBoostKey words
the Yellow River Basin/carbon emissions from construction land/influencing factors/spatial autocorrelation model/geographically weighted tobit regression/eXtreme gradient boosting分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
薛建春,曹凌辰,张翔,丁志斌..基于夜间灯光数据的黄河流域城市建设用地碳排放影响因素分析及达峰预测[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2025,56(3):148-162,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42061051) （42061051）
教育部春晖计划项目(HZKY20220442) （HZKY20220442）
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2022LHMS070003) （2022LHMS070003）
