沈阳农业大学学报2025，Vol.56Issue(4)：44-55,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1700.2025.04.005
东北黑土区耕地非粮化时空分异特征及其驱动机制研究
Study on the Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of Non-grain Cultivation in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Examination of the spatial and temporal distinguishing features along with the influential elements affecting the non-grain conversion of arable land in the Northeast black soil area,with the aim of providing a basis for the rational utilization of cultivated land and the guarantee of food security in the Northeast black soil region.[Method]Based on the data of cultivated land sown area from 2010 to 2020 and the driving force data of policies,economy,society and technology,by the non-grainization rate of cultivated land,spatial autocorrelation analysis,quantification of policy documents,and geographically weighted regression model.The characteristics of spatial-temporal differentiation and the driving factors behind the non-grain of cultivated land in the Northeast black soil region were investigated.[Results]From the perspective of temporal evolution,the non-grain rate of cultivated land in the northeast black soil region has decreased significantly overall from 2010 to 2020,which can be mainly divided into the fluctuating decline stage from 2010 to 2016,the rapid decline stage from 2016 to 2018,and the slight rebound stage from 2018 to 2020.From the perspective of spatial characteristics,non-food cropland in the north-eastern black soil region shows obvious spatial variability,and the overall layout is characterised by'high in the west and low in the east'.The distribution has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,presenting a high-high agglomeration area in the northern part of Inner Mongolia and a low-low agglomeration area in the central part of Heilongjiang.From the perspective of driving mechanisms,the proportion of the primary industry has the most significant impact,and mainly has a negative effect.Secondly,the two policies of land transfer and grain subsidie have significant effects.The land transfer policy has different effects in different regions,exerting an inhibitory effect in the north and a promoting effect in the south.The grain subsidy policy has an inhibitory effect overall.Based on this,the following suggestions are proposed.[Conclusion]According to the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the factors with relatively strong driving forces for the non-grain production of cultivated land in the black soil area of Northeast China are the proportion of the primary industry,land transfer policies,and grain subsidy policies.The impacts of other factors are relatively small.While ensuring that the primary function of arable land is dedicated to grain production,efforts should be strengthened to provide policy support for grain cultivation.Additionally,regional layouts should be adjusted based on the supply and demand of agricultural products and development advantages.关键词
耕地非粮化/时空分异/驱动机制/GWR模型/东北黑土区Key words
decarbonization of cultivated land/spatio-temporal differentiation/driving mechanism/GWR model/Northeast black soil region分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘洪彬,杜欣雨,董秀茹..东北黑土区耕地非粮化时空分异特征及其驱动机制研究[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2025,56(4):44-55,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD1901601-1) （2022YFD1901601-1）
国家自然科学基金项目(2023YFD15011018) （2023YFD15011018）
