中国食物与营养2026，Vol.32Issue(2)：70-79,10.
国际市场价格对中国乳制品进口的溢出影响分析
Analysis on Spillover Effects of Global Market Prices on China's Dairy Imports
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To analyze the current status of China's dairy product import trade,decompose the structural factors behind import fluctuations,measure the spillover effects of international market prices on China's dairy imports and their dynamic transmission mechanisms,and provide targeted recommendations for the development of China's dairy industry.[Method]The basic situation of China's dairy import trade was reviewed through a status analysis.A CMS model was constructed to decompose the structural factors of import fluctuations and analyze the influencing factors of import changes during 2018-2023.The TVP-VAR-DY model was employed to measure the directionality and dynamics of international price spillovers and analyze the price spillover effects.[Result]The international market exhibits dynamically fluctuating trade price spillover effects on China's dairy product imports,and the transmission demonstrates bidirectional characteristics.China presents the characteristics of a"net receiver"in dairy import pricing.Risks of excessive dependence on a single market and single product category exist in dairy imports.[Conclusion]Based on the research findings,targeted recom-mendations are proposed to provide a reference for the future development direction of China's dairy industry,aiming to mitigate international price spillover risks and optimize the import structure.关键词
乳制品进口/国际乳制品价格波动/溢出效应/TVP-VAR-DY模型Key words
dairy product import/international dairy price fluctuation/spillover effect/TVP-VAR-DY Model引用本文复制引用
孙建涛,王琛,王熙婷..国际市场价格对中国乳制品进口的溢出影响分析[J].中国食物与营养,2026,32(2):70-79,10.基金项目
北京市属高校教师队伍建设支持计划优秀青年人才项目(项目编号:BPHR202203101) （项目编号:BPHR202203101）
北京市乡村振兴农业科技项目"畜禽产销信息预测及智能服务技术研究"(项目编号:NY2502270225). （项目编号:NY2502270225）
