教育与教学研究Issue(2)：81-97,17.
城乡义务教育在校生变动趋势与教育资源需求预测
Trends in the Changes of Students Enrolled in Urban and Rural Compulsory Education and Prediction of Educational Resource Demand
摘要
Abstract
The scale of students in school is the core basis for the allocation of educational resources.Against the backdrop of negative population growth,accurately predicting the trends of changes in the number of students in urban and rural areas is of great significance for optimizing the supply of educational resources.Based on the data from the seventh national census and using the CPPS population prediction tool,this paper predicts the scale of students in urban and rural compulsory education in Sichuan Province and the demand for educational resources from 2025 to 2040.It is found that the school-age population in compulsory education in Sichuan Province will continue to decline,with the cumulative de-cline in the school-age population for primary and junior high schools being 33％to 43％and 39％to 43％respectively.The number of students in urban primary and junior high schools will decrease from 4.485 million and 2.557 million in 2025 to 2.887 million and 1.576 million in 2040,while the corresponding numbers in rural areas will drop from 730 000 and 253 000 to 184 000 and 66 000 respectively.The decline in the number of students leads to a synchronous decrease in the demand for full-time teachers in both urban and rural areas,with the demand for teachers in rural areas decreasing by 74.6％,significantly higher than the 36.8％decrease in urban areas,the disparity in teacher allocation between urban and rural areas has become more pronounced.The demand for school buildings in both urban and rural areas shows a downward trend,but the rate of decline in rural areas is about twice that in urban areas.The demand for educational funds shows a differentiation between urban and rural areas,with the demand for funds in urban areas increasing by approxi-mately 27％,while in rural areas it shrinks by about 48.8％.Based on this,potential measures include integrating multi-source data to establish a population-resource linkage monitoring system,implementing flexible teacher staffing manage-ment,promoting the"optimization of existing stock"and"targeted supply"of school buildings,and establishing a"founda-tion+stock"framework for the allocation of educational funding.These measures can be taken to address the shifts in the demand for educational resources driven by demographic changes.关键词
在校生规模/义务教育/教育资源需求/人口预测Key words
scale of students in school/compulsory education/demand for educational resources/population predic-tion分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
杜学元,杨豪..城乡义务教育在校生变动趋势与教育资源需求预测[J].教育与教学研究,2026,(2):81-97,17.基金项目
四川省哲学社会科学研究"十四五"规划项目"晏阳初的人民情怀及其当代价值"(编号:SC24E056). （编号:SC24E056）
