当代教育论坛Issue(2)：20-28,9.
教育风险触发变量的不确定性扩展及理性应对
Analysis on the Uncertainty Expansion of Triggering Variables for Educational Risks and Rational Responses
摘要
Abstract
Educational risk is an important content and key governance of social risk.The rapid development of a new round of technology and industrial revolution,the accelerated evolution of unprecedented changes in the world,and especially the arrival of the VUCA Society,have made the triggering variables and related influencing factors of educational risks increasingly complex and variable,with a wide range of related variables,occurrence symptoms,and enormous destructive power.From the macro dynamic types of social risk triggering sources,these triggering variables can be roughly classified into three categories:structural variables,emergent variables,and cyclical variables,and exhibit an interactive superposition trend.It is necessary to closely track and explore their trends,and dynamically provide situational response strategies according to the time and local conditions.In terms of structural variables,the main manifestation is the leapfrog increase in educational power and educational policies.The specific manifestations and countermeasures are:the variation and regulation of educational power,and the deformation and revision of educational policies.In terms of cyclical variables,the main manifestation is that the threshold for family education and social expectations is relatively high.The specific manifestations and countermeasures are:abnormal and responsive family education behavior,lack or homogeneity of risk sharing mechanisms.In terms of emergent variables,the main manifestation is the non-linear transformation of digital technology,cultural fields,and international environment.The specific manifestations and countermeasures are:the widening and bridging of the digital divide,subculture erosion and explosion,and anti-globalization squeezing and breakthrough.关键词
教育风险/触发变量/不确定性扩展/理性应对Key words
educational risks/triggering variables/uncertainty expansion/rational response引用本文复制引用
胡锐军..教育风险触发变量的不确定性扩展及理性应对[J].当代教育论坛,2026,(2):20-28,9.基金项目
本文系北京市教育科学"十四五"规划重点课题"教育风险治理的权力规制、权利供给与环境协同三旋路径研究"(编号:BAAA25061)的阶段性研究成果. （编号:BAAA25061）
