当代教育论坛Issue(3)：18-28,11.
人口负增长时代学前教育高质量发展的组态路径
Configuration Pathways for High-Quality Development of Preschool Education in the Era of Negative Population Growth:An Exploratory Analysis Based on NCA and fsQCA
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of negative population growth,structural shifts in the supply and demand of preschool education are driving its developmental logic to transition from scale expansion to quality enhancement,with the exploration of differentiated pathways serving as a critical enabler for this transformation.Grounded in educational ecology theory,this study constructs a three-dimensional configuration model("macro-meso-micro")and employs data from 31 provincial-level administrative regions(excluding Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions)as analytical samples.By integrating Necessary Condition Analysis(NCA)and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA),this study typical pathways for high-quality preschool education development.Findings reveal that quality improvement exhibits significant cross-level synergy,where micro-,meso-,and macro-level factors interact non-linearly to form a composite driving network.Four distinct pathways emerge based on varying combinations of elements:population-driven,dual-core funding-driven,all-factor synergistic,and institutional rigidity-based guarantee models.Accordingly,policymakers should tailor strategies to regional contexts,leveraging localized advantages and resource endowments to formulate adaptive frameworks for preschool education quality advancement.关键词
人口负增长时代/学前教育高质量发展/组态路径/NCA/fsQCAKey words
era of negative population growth/high-quality development of preschool education/configurational paths/NCA/fsQCA引用本文复制引用
方建华,刘思羽,杜沄芝..人口负增长时代学前教育高质量发展的组态路径[J].当代教育论坛,2026,(3):18-28,11.基金项目
本文系石河子大学高层次人才科研启动项目"新疆县域托幼养老一体化模型建构与实践路径"(编号:RCSK202537)的阶段性研究成果. （编号:RCSK202537）
