沈阳农业大学学报2026，Vol.57Issue(3)：160-171,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1700.2026.03.016
新世纪中国水稻生产格局时空演变及驱动因素分析
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Rice Production Patterns in China in the New Century
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and multidimensional driving mechanisms of rice production in China,aiming to provide decision-making support for optimizing the spatial pattern of rice production and ensuring national food security.[Methods]Based on panel data from 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2000 to 2022,the study employs the concentration index,standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and kernel density estimation to comprehensively reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of rice production patterns.Furthermore,a Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)is applied to explore the comprehensive effects and spatial spillover mechanisms of multiple driving factors,including natural conditions,socioeconomic factors,input factors,and technological innovation.[Results]From 2000 to 2022,China's rice production exhibited a trend of"initial decline followed by fluctuating growth."The spatial pattern showed a"southward contraction and northward expansion,"with the production gravity center shifting northeastward.Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was observed,characterized mainly by high-high and low-low clusters,though the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually weakened.Rice production displayed significant spatial spillover effects:natural conditions(sown area),socioeconomic factors(economic development level,non-agricultural employment opportunities,urbanization rate),input factors(effective irrigation area),and technological innovation(rice yield per unit area)were positively associated with rice production concentration,whereas input factors such as fertilizer input and rural labor force exhibited significant negative correlations.The effective irrigation area,non-agricultural employment opportunities,fertilizer input,and urbanization rate in neighboring provinces also significantly affected local rice production concentration.[Conclusion]To optimize the spatial pattern of rice production,attention should be given to spatial linkages among regions.Strengthening agricultural infrastructure,rationally controlling fertilizer application,and promoting coordinated urban-rural development are essential strategies to improve rice production efficiency and safeguard national food security.关键词
水稻生产/时空演变/驱动因素/粮食安全/空间杜宾模型Key words
rice production/spatiotemporal evolution/driving factors/food security/spatial Durbin model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
皮修平,唐俊杰,周镕基..新世纪中国水稻生产格局时空演变及驱动因素分析[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2026,57(3):160-171,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY257) （21BJY257）
湖南省创新平台开放基金项目(2023HSKFJJ015) （2023HSKFJJ015）
