中国食物与营养2026，Vol.32Issue(9)：1-9,9.
1990-2023年中国60岁以上老年人蛋白质能量营养不良疾病负担趋势和预测分析
Trends and Projections of the Disease Burden of Protein-Energy Malnutrition Among Chinese Adults Aged 60 Years and Older in 1990-2023
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends in the disease burden of protein-energy malnutrition(PEM)among Chinese adults aged 60 years and older from 1990 to 2023,and to project its development trajectory for 2024-2032,thereby providing evidence for formulating differentiated nutritional intervention strategies for the elderly.[Method]Based on Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2023 data,we extracted indicators including prevalence,incidence,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)for PEM among Chinese adults aged 60 years and older.Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)for trend analysis,while Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)models were applied for disease burden projections.[Result]From 1990 to 2023,the age-standardized prevalence of PEM among Chinese adults aged 60 years and older increased from 1 360.99 per 100 000 to 2 435.18 per 100 000(EAPC=2.33％),while the age-standardized incidence rate increased from 1 347.15/100 000 to 2 326.54/100 000(EAPC=2.25％).Conversely,the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased by 28.72％(EAPC=-0.65％),revealing a trend of"separation of incidence and burden."Significant population disparities existed in disease burden:males bore a higher burden than females;The rate of decline in DALYs decreases with increasing age,and improvements in burden among the oldest-old aged 85 and above have stalled.During the COVID-19 pandemic period(2020-2023),the growth in prevalence and incidence slowed,and the downward trend in DALYs reversed.Projections indicate that by 2032,prevalence and incidence will plateau,while the DALYs rate will continue to decline gradually.[Conclusion]China's elderly population aged 60 and above exhibits a"decoupling of incidence and burden"trend in PEM,characterized by rising case numbers but declining health loss.This reflects both the widespread implementation of nutritional screening and enhanced diagnostic capabilities among China's elderly,as well as the significant effectiveness of medical advancements in reducing PEM-related mortality and disability rates.This study provides crucial scientific evidence for develop-ing differentiated nutritional intervention strategies for the elderly.Future efforts should prioritize vulnerable populations such as the very old and males,implementing tailored and precise nutritional improvement strategies.关键词
蛋白质能量营养不良/老年人/疾病负担/流行病学趋势/贝叶斯预测/中国Key words
protein-energy malnutrition/elderly/disease burden/epidemiological trends/Bayesian predic-tion/China引用本文复制引用
欧阳辰昕,王城,梁云,唐静华,赵丹..1990-2023年中国60岁以上老年人蛋白质能量营养不良疾病负担趋势和预测分析[J].中国食物与营养,2026,32(9):1-9,9.基金项目
四川省基层卫生事业发展研究中心科研项目(项目编号:SWFZ24-Z-06) （项目编号:SWFZ24-Z-06）
2025年南充市社会科学研究"十四五"规划项目(项目编号:NC25C012) （项目编号:NC25C012）
川北医学院附属医院高层次引进人才基金(项目编号:2023-2GC011). （项目编号:2023-2GC011）
