辽宁农业科学Issue(2)：15-20,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1728.2024.02.003
基于泊松分布的丹东草莓成熟期暴雨灾害风险分析
Risk Analysis of Torrential Rain Disaster during Strawberry Ripening Period in Dandong Based on Poisson Distribution
摘要
Abstract
Rainstorm disaster is the main natural disaster that affects the characteristic agricultural production of strawberry.Based on the meteorological observation data of 4 stations in Dandong from 1991 to 2020 and the disaster information of strawberry ripening period,the disaster index of strawberry rainstorm was established.Considering the frequency,intensity and duration of rainstorm,the disaster levels of mild,moderate and se-vere rainstorm are formulated,and the probability of rainstorm disaster risk in different grades of strawberry ripening period in Dandong area is obtained based on the evaluation model of Poisson distribution.The results showed that:(1)There was a large spatial difference in the number of rainstorm disasters during strawberry ripening period in Dandong in 30 years,with an average of 11.0,at least 7 in Kuandian and at most 15 in Zhen'an;(2)The station frequency ratio of rainstorm disasters during strawberry ripening period in Dandong in the past 30 years showed a decreasing trend,decreasing by 2.8 percentage points every 10 years(P<0.01).The station frequency ratio was the highest from 2011 to 2010,and the scope of rainstorm disasters decreased after 2011;(3)The temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm disasters at different levels dur-ing the strawberry ripening period in Dandong in the past 30 years are obvious.The annual average number of rainstorm disasters in each region is 0.37,and the number of mild,moderate and severe storms decreases suc-cessively,which are 0.23,0.10 and 0.13 respectively.The number of rainstorm disasters in Zhen'an District is up to 0.50;(4)In 30 years,the risk probability of rainstorm disasters in various regions of Dandong is dominated by mild rainstorm disasters,with a probability range of 46.9%～57.7%,close to or more than once every two years(≥50%),followed by moderate and severe rainstorm disasters.The exceedance probability of rainstorm disasters is 62.3%,which occurs once every two years or more,mainly in Zhen'an District,and the risk of mild and moderate rainstorm disasters is high.关键词
草莓/成熟期/暴雨灾害/泊松分布/风险概率Key words
Strawberry/Mature period/Rainstorm disaster/Poisson distribution/Risk probability分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
董海涛,姜兆彤,李如楠,房一禾..基于泊松分布的丹东草莓成熟期暴雨灾害风险分析[J].辽宁农业科学,2024,(2):15-20,6.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J022) （CXFZ2021J022）
辽宁省博士科研启动基金计划项目(2019-BS-214) （2019-BS-214）
丹东市指导性科技计划项目(DD2024030) （DD2024030）
