国际石油经济2024，Vol.32Issue(6)：80-86,7.
天然气市场化改革背景下中国LNG出厂价格影响因素研究
Study on the influencing factors of China's LNG ex-factory prices in the context of natural gas marketization reforms
摘要
Abstract
The paper analyzes the factors influencing LNG ex-factory prices from such two perspectives as supply&demand fundamentals and energy markets.It chooses such factors as production,cost,supply and demand,inventory,and temperature levels on the supply and demand side and selects crude oil spot,fuel oil,liquefied petroleum gas(LPG),gasoline and diesel,and coal spot prices on the energy market side.The paper takes Northeast Asian spot prices as international natural gas prices,the price of LNG in Inner Mongolia as the study object,the actual data from the databases of Oilchem and Wind Company,and data from November 3,2021 to October 18,2023 as the weekly study samples.The paper explores the impact of the influencing factors as a whole on LNG ex-factory prices by typical correlation analysis and the effect of each factor on the price based on Granger causality test in the vector auto regression(VAR)model.It is concluded that China's LNG ex-factory prices are weakly responsive to supply and demand and strongly influenced by spillover effects from the energy market.It is recommended to expand the trading scale of natural gas market and improve the natural gas trading system so as to promote the development of LNG marketization in China.关键词
天然气价格/LNG出厂价格/影响因素/典型相关分析/VAR模型/天然气市场Key words
natural gas prices/LNG ex-factory price/influencing factors/typical correlation analysis/VAR model/natural gas market引用本文复制引用
邓钰暄,冯晓丽,孙仁金,李慧慧..天然气市场化改革背景下中国LNG出厂价格影响因素研究[J].国际石油经济,2024,32(6):80-86,7.
